When the Ground Moves: How Climate Change Is Accelerating Subsidence and How Satellites Are Helping Us Track the Risk

Land subsidence, the gradual sinking or settling of the ground, is becoming harder to ignore as climate change puts more pressure on water systems, coastlines, cities, and infrastructure. 

The link between climate change and subsidence is not always obvious at first, but it often appears through drought, groundwater pumping, sea-level rise, and changing land use.

Today, satellite monitoring and InSAR monitoring give communities and infrastructure managers a clearer way to see where the ground is moving before damage becomes visible.

What is land subsidence, and why does it matter?

Land subsidence happens when the ground surface sinks because materials below it compact, collapse, dissolve, or shift. In many developed regions, the most common driver is groundwater extraction: when water is removed from underground aquifers, pressure drops and layers of sediment can compress.

The U.S. Geological Survey notes that more than 80% of known land subsidence in the United States is connected to groundwater use, which makes water management a central part of the risk picture. 

In the UK, urgent warnings have recently been issued calling for action on land subsidence to protect national infrastructure, amid growing concerns over the impacts of climate change and increasingly variable weather patterns. 

With an 86 per cent chance that the UK will experience its warmest year on record between 2026 and 2030, periods of prolonged heat and drying could increase the risk of ground movement in moisture-sensitive soils, as water evaporates, soils shrink and the ground beneath infrastructure becomes less stable.

The problem matters because ground subsidence is rarely just a geology issue. It can crack roads, tilt buildings, strain pipelines, lower levees, worsen flood exposure, and reduce the long-term storage capacity of aquifers. In coastal areas, sinking land can make sea-level rise feel faster at the local level, because the water is rising while the land is dropping.

Ground subsidence also presents a growing challenge for rail infrastructure, where localised ground instability can affect asset performance, disrupt operations and lead to speed restrictions, line closures and costly emergency intervention.

Why climate change is intensifying the conditions that cause sinking ground

Climate change does not cause every case of subsidence, but it can amplify several of the drivers behind it. Longer or more severe droughts can increase reliance on groundwater for farms, cities, and industry. When groundwater levels fall significantly, fine-grained sediments within an aquifer system can compact. Some of this compaction may be irreversible, permanently reducing aquifer storage capacity.

NASA describes the combination of climate change and growing populations as a source of increasing stress on groundwater resources globally, with subsidence occurring when underground materials compress as water is withdrawn.

That makes climate change subsidence tracking especially important in places where water demand is rising, precipitation patterns are becoming less reliable, or drought planning depends on underground reserves.

Several climate-linked pathways can contribute to the issue:

• Drought and groundwater dependence: Less reliable surface water can push communities to pump more from aquifers.

  
  

• Extreme rainfall and drainage changes: Rapid wet-dry cycles can destabilize certain soils and built environments.

  
  

• Sea-level rise: Coastal subsidence increases relative sea-level rise, raising flood and storm-surge risk.

  
  

• Heat and urban growth: Expanding cities often increase water demand while adding load to compressible ground.

  
  

• Peat and organic soil loss: Drained organic soils can oxidize and shrink, gradually lowering the land surface.

  
  

The practical takeaway is simple: subsidence monitoring should be part of climate adaptation, not treated as a separate technical concern.

Why is satellite monitoring useful for subsidence risk?

Satellite monitoring is useful because it can measure ground movement across large areas repeatedly, consistently, and often with enough detail to reveal patterns that are invisible from the ground. 

Instead of waiting for cracks, dips, or drainage failures to appear, decision-makers can use satellite data to identify where movement is accelerating and where field inspections should be prioritised.

This is where InSAR, short for Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, becomes powerful.

InSAR compares radar images of the same location taken at different times. Tiny differences between those radar signals can be used to estimate how the ground surface has moved between observations.

The European Space Agency describes radar imagery from Sentinel-1 as a strong tool for tracking land subsidence and structural damage because radar can observe changes over wide areas. NASA also notes that satellite InSAR observations can include hundreds of thousands of data points, far more than sparse ground-based measurement networks in many areas. 

For planners, engineers, utilities, insurers, and water managers, that scale matters. A single neighbourhood inspection may show local damage, but InSAR monitoring can reveal whether that neighbourhood is part of a broader zone of deformation.

What InSAR can show that ground inspections may miss

Traditional inspections are still essential, but they often capture damage after it has already become a problem. 

InSAR can support earlier awareness by showing motion trends over time. It can help distinguish a stable area from one that is sinking gradually, seasonally, or rapidly.

Useful InSAR outputs often include:

• Velocity maps showing the average rate and spatial pattern of ground movement..

• Time-series charts showing whether subsidence is steady, seasonal, or accelerating.

• Hotspot areas where deformation may require field verification.

Geofem InSAR analysis identifying a significant zone of ground subsidence associated with mining activity.

• Infrastructure overlays connecting movement patterns to roads, rails, pipelines, canals, levees, or buildings.

• Before-and-after comparisons following drought, heavy pumping, construction, flooding, or other stressors.

InSAR is not a replacement for geotechnical investigation, groundwater data, levelling surveys, GPS stations, or engineering judgment. 

It works best as part of a layered approach - satellite data can point to where the risk is emerging, while ground teams can investigate causes, conditions, and appropriate responses.

Subsidence monitoring supports better climate adaptation

The value of subsidence monitoring is not only scientific. It is practical. If a community can see where land is sinking, it can make better choices about zoning, water pumping, drainage design, flood defences, infrastructure maintenance, and emergency planning.

For example, a water agency might compare InSAR movement maps with well pumping records to see whether certain aquifers are responding poorly to extraction. A coastal city might combine land motion data with sea-level projections to identify neighbourhoods where relative flood risk is increasing faster than expected. A transportation department might use ground movement trends to prioritise inspections along rail corridors or bridge approaches.

The future of watching a moving planet

As climate pressures grow, the ground beneath communities will become an increasingly important part of resilience planning. 

Land subsidence may be slow, but its impacts can be lasting, especially where sinking land intersects with water scarcity, urban growth, and sea-level rise.

InSAR and broader satellite monitoring are changing how we understand that risk. They help turn subtle ground movement into usable information, giving communities a better chance to protect infrastructure, manage groundwater, and plan for a changing climate. When the ground moves, the most valuable response is not panic; it is timely, well-informed action.

Geofem turns satellite observations into actionable ground intelligence. Using advanced InSAR analysis and satellite-based monitoring, we help organisations detect, understand and monitor ground movement across wide areas and over time. 

From transportation infrastructure and urban environments to mining, energy and water-related challenges, our insights help decision-makers understand what is happening beneath the surface — and act before small changes become bigger problems. Find out more today.